SHFE tin prices were in the doldrums during the night session, and trading in the spot market was sluggish. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 27, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened slightly lower in the night session and continued to fluctuate at lows, closing at 282,100 yuan/mt, down 0.3% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the "2025 Automotive Industry Statistical Annual Report Work Conference," organized by CAAM, was held in Changsha, Hunan Province from October 22 to 25, 2025. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the association, systematically analyzed the current development trends of the automotive industry. The industry still faces multiple challenges, including sluggish domestic demand growth, persistent inventory pressure requiring caution, continued pressure on profitability, unresolved risks of price wars, and geopolitical impacts disrupting the stability of the industry chain. The economic operation of the automotive industry remains under significant pressure. In response, Chen Shihua proposed recommendations to steadily advance the implementation of various pro-growth policy deployments, fully tap into the potential for market growth, advocate for a phased exit of the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy at rates of 3% in 2026 and 7% in 2027, strengthen comprehensive measures to address involution, and enhance policy guidance and supervision. (2) In the first three quarters, the total import and export value of the Beijing area (including central government units in Beijing) reached 2.41 trillion yuan. Imports amounted to 1.94 trillion yuan, while exports hit 462.2 billion yuan, setting a new record high for the same period in history. In September, exports from the Beijing area maintained a positive trend, growing for the fourth consecutive month on a MoM basis, with the export value reaching the highest monthly level since 2023. Key export products, including mobile phones, integrated circuits, automobiles, auto parts, flat panel display modules, and medical devices, collectively showed strong performance with significant growth, among which flat panel display modules saw the largest increase, up 318.8%. In the first three quarters, the import and export value of private enterprises in the Beijing area totaled 332.33 billion yuan, an increase of 7%, accounting for 13.8% of the total import and export value of the area. Exports reached 120.07 billion yuan, growing 27.7%, which was 18.9 percentage points higher than the export growth rate of private enterprises nationwide. (3) It was learned from the 2025 International Energy Transformation Forum that China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system. Over the past decade, the annual new installations of wind and solar power have successively surpassed the thresholds of 100 million kW, 200 million kW, and 300 million kW. Currently, wind and solar installations account for nearly half of the global total, with new installations representing 60% of the global total. The proportion of renewable energy power installation has increased to around 60%. Wang Hongzhi, Administrator of the National Energy Administration, stated at the forum that China has now cooperated with over 100 countries and regions on green energy projects, contributing to a reduction in the average cost per kWh of global wind and solar power projects by 60% and 80%, respectively. Wind and solar products manufactured in China have helped reduce global carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 2.65 billion metric tons in the past year alone.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in key producing regions like Yunnan. Maintenance shutdowns at some smelters in October have largely concluded, and production at most smelters in Yunnan is relatively stable. (2) Demand side: Due to sluggish demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream procurement remains cautious, and high prices are significantly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations are driving some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small and insufficient to offset the consumption decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Trading activity in the spot market is relatively sluggish, primarily characterized by just-in-time procurement. Downstream enterprises have limited acceptance of the current high tin prices, showing weak purchase willingness. Most traders report daily trading volumes of less than one truckload.

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